Uber described 2024 as "a turning point for the industry, as autonomous vehicle (AV) technology began to mature and more people experienced the magic of their first autonomous ride."
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi added: "We estimate that the U.S. market alone is a 1 trillion dollar opportunity as you commercialise AV at scale and bring the unit economics down.....[but] we think that the commercialisation of the technology is gonna take way, way longer. And by the time that the technology commercialises all over the world and in the U.S., you're gonna see many, many more players get over the finish line as it relates to technology."
"In the next five years, the addressable market is going to be probably in the order of 10% to 15% of the overall marketplace and then gradually is going to expand over a period of time over the next 15 years or so," he added.
Khosrowshahi identified five factors that are required for "scale commercialisation of this business," which he quantified as 10%, 20%, 30% of Uber's volumes. The five factors he cited are enabling regulation, "a consistently superhuman safety record", cost-effective vehicles, excellent on-the-ground operations; and a "high-utilisation network" that can manage variable demand with flexible supply.
Uber claimed that AVs currently cost more than 200,000 US dollars each to make, while also noting that an "average-utilised AV" can run as much as 100,000 miles a year, compared to a typical consumer vehicle at 10,000-15,000 miles a year. "This means that AVs need to be charged multiple times a day and serviced monthly," Uber says.
As it partners with AV developers, Uber said it is spending "an enormous, yet appropriate, amount of organisational energy to execute on our AV strategy. We will have much more to share through the year, starting with our public launch with Waymo in Austin next month and Atlanta this summer. "
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